 |
|
Don't have an account yet? You can create one. As a registered user you have some advantages like theme manager, comments configuration and post comments with your name.
|
There are currently, 7 guest(s) and 6 member(s) that are online.
You are Anonymous user. You can register for free by clicking here
|
|
Select Interface Language:
|
| |
| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
Dundee
Just off the shuttle
Joined: Jan 13, 2008
Posts: 25
|
 Posted: Sat Jan 19, 2008 2:47 pm Post subject: |
 |
|
| Obee wrote: | | You're beginning to parse posts in the same way that made everything fall apart when you posted on the MMORPG.com board. A game that pulls in $100 a month over monthly costs, but cost $30 million to make, is not, nor ever will be profitable. |
I don't mean to be.
There are games running now, which have been running for years already, which are not and will never be profitable.
They're still running though, because they bring in more than 0 dollars per month, whereas shutting them down brings in 0 dollars per month.
They will never earn back what they cost to make, but it's not as if shutting them down will get you that money back...
Plus it works both ways:
There are also games which recouped their development costs right away, and long ago, and after much profit and many years, later were just above breaking-even. They had been profitable, they were not losing money, and they were canceled anyway.
| Quote: | | For a game to be even potentially profitable, it has to be earning enough monthly revenue over monthly costs to be on track to recover the initial investment within a reasonable amount of time (what's reasonable will differ with the individuals involved). |
Agreed. I guess what I'm saying is that games getting shut-down is more often a "What have you done for me lately?"-kind of thing.
Oddly enough, SOE tends to have a better track record for sticking-with their games than some others, but then when they are the publisher and the IP owner, then they can do that.
_________________
--Jeff Freeman
|
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
Dundee
Just off the shuttle
Joined: Jan 13, 2008
Posts: 25
|
| Posted: Sat Jan 19, 2008 3:11 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Owen-Lars wrote: | | Where do you think the level of community involvement is going these days? |
You mean in general?
My gut feeling is that it's going to diminish even further for a while.
The model of running a farm of parallel universes as though they were one doesn't allow you to address Bob of Universe 1 and Sue of Universe 3 individually. If you react to Bob, your reaction to Bob is the answer Sue gets to her issue, too.
And it's all out of the question if you have 400 parallel universes.
Eve Online has it right, but funding for development looks at them and looks at WoW and generally gets their heart set on owning a WoW.
I have hope for more personal-service oriented business models some day, but I think after a wave a WoW-wanna-be's, there'll be a wave of Kiddy-games, and only after that, with the next wave of clones (I mean, in the next major trend), is there a chance the thing being cloned is that model.
Or
If MMORPGs follow the MUD life-cycle, then by that time, for $15/month you can run your own MMO (and otherwise play any of a thousand of them for free).
The idea of paying $15/month for one game will seem as ridiculous to us then as paying $15/hour seems to us now.
Either way, it'll seem like an archaic pastime to most people, who play their MMO-type thing on consoles.
My predictions for the future, based on nothing substantial.
_________________
--Jeff Freeman
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Dundee
Just off the shuttle
Joined: Jan 13, 2008
Posts: 25
|
| Posted: Sat Jan 19, 2008 3:33 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Owen-Lars wrote: | | With the Ranger Revamp? Did people know that it was going to be deleted anyway? |
I'm still bound by the NDA (and will be forever technically, or until no one cares one way or the other practically).
I only meant to shed-light on my own thoughts, then and now, about what was already public knowledge.
Otherwise I've engaged in a bit of speculation here and there, which shouldn't be taken as eye-witness reporting. If I knew for sure about this or that, I probably couldn't talk about it.
It's difficult to resist the temptation to defend old coworkers and friends and say, "No, so-n-so is really a stand-up guy and that was all not as it appeared" and so on... but I'm thinking I better shut my trap, and you probably don't want to hear any of that noise from me anyway. Heh.
I didn't mean to give the impression that I was in a position to confess on behalf of anyone but myself, nor apologize for anything but what I personally did, so I hope no one has taken anything posted here to mean that.
_________________
--Jeff Freeman
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
wildcat
Admin Cabal
Joined: Dec 23, 2007
Posts: 166
Location: Huntington, WV
|
| Posted: Sat Jan 19, 2008 4:15 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Dundee wrote: | | Owen-Lars wrote: | | Where do you think the level of community involvement is going these days? |
You mean in general?
My gut feeling is that it's going to diminish even further for a while.
The model of running a farm of parallel universes as though they were one doesn't allow you to address Bob of Universe 1 and Sue of Universe 3 individually. If you react to Bob, your reaction to Bob is the answer Sue gets to her issue, too.
And it's all out of the question if you have 400 parallel universes.
Eve Online has it right, but funding for development looks at them and looks at WoW and generally gets their heart set on owning a WoW.
I have hope for more personal-service oriented business models some day, but I think after a wave a WoW-wanna-be's, there'll be a wave of Kiddy-games, and only after that, with the next wave of clones (I mean, in the next major trend), is there a chance the thing being cloned is that model.
Or
If MMORPGs follow the MUD life-cycle, then by that time, for $15/month you can run your own MMO (and otherwise play any of a thousand of them for free).
The idea of paying $15/month for one game will seem as ridiculous to us then as paying $15/hour seems to us now.
Either way, it'll seem like an archaic pastime to most people, who play their MMO-type thing on consoles.
My predictions for the future, based on nothing substantial. |
I actually agree with quite a lot of this.
Although I don't think that it's realistic to believe that there will suddenly be hundreds of "run your own MMOs" though... On that scale you are basically running a FPS server with a dozen or two people at most. That's not a Massively Multiplayer game.
This is one reason why I think that Raph's metaplace idea is flawed, not to mention that the technology he's using (web browser) isn't going to deliver a quality 3D graphics experience.
The CCP way is definitely the REAL model for how to succeed beyond all expectations. No one would have ever predicted that EVE would ever have more subs than SWG.... Much less EQ and EQ2, which it does at this point.
I agree the VC's will foolishly throw money (for awhile) at WoW model clones (which they have been doing already). I also believe that these will fail badly. We've already seen the maximum potential for a WoW clone in LOTRO. LOTRO is a decently successful game by pre-WOW standards, and it's about the best done, most polished, and least buggy of the clones released to date, but it's far from 1 million subs. The age of the WOW clone is about over, especially given the lack of success, and the fact that the economy is starting to slow. 2008 is going to be a very difficult year for the industry, I think there are going to be a lot of games close, and a lot of development houses close. In fact, I predict that 2008 ends with fewer open/in production MMOs than it begins with.
And this will be a good thing. The companies and developer personnel who survive this VERY much needed correction will be a lot stronger overall than the industry as it is now.
The industry is in it's "Dot Com" stage. As we all know, the internet had to have that bubble melt down before it matured, and so it will happen with the MMO industry. Right now there simply are far too many similar MMOs in development/released chasing too slow a growing customer base for them. Too many development houses are in the industry with too many unqualified Devs for the wrong reason, chasing WOW money rather than working on groundbreaking games.
Not to mention that, because of the EXTREMELY HIGH demand for MMO Devs fueled by the "clone WOW=$$$$$" MMO industry bubble, lots of people have entered the Dev career field who are chasing money rather than their own ability or even career passion, much as happened with the massive number of "paper MCSE's" who polluted the IT industry at the height of the dot com bubble.
The Dot Com bust in the long run made the IT industry healthy by ridding it of both unsound companies and unsound personnel. Same needs to happen in the MMO industry. We are actually seeing it happen now, though this will become much more pronounced as 2008 moves along. I wonder how many paper MCSE's of 1998-2001 are right now working as "paper MMO Devs"?
Somewhere though a SMART VC will realize the CCP model is the way to make money, and there likely will be a couple of these happen.
One thing I've noted about EVE (which is the MMO I play now) is that the Devs are all hardcore players of the game. I never had the impression that the SWG Dev team ever played SWG, because of how they'd be surprised at reports of issues in game, bugs, etc posted on the forums that anyone who even casually played the game would encounter constantly.
I think that developers should be REQUIRED to play the game that they develop for. Otherwise, how else are they going to understand what they are doing?
I am a network and systems engineer. It'd make little sense for me to make network design decisions if I never connected my PC to that network. Or ever used a PC at all except when I had to to do network design, would it? I'd be far more likely to make huge mistakes and to piss off the users if I, myself weren't also a user of the systems and networks, wouldn't I? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Dundee
Just off the shuttle
Joined: Jan 13, 2008
Posts: 25
|
| Posted: Sat Jan 19, 2008 11:01 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| wildcat wrote: |
Although I don't think that it's realistic to believe that there will suddenly be hundreds of "run your own MMOs" though... On that scale you are basically running a FPS server with a dozen or two people at most. That's not a Massively Multiplayer game.
|
Oh, I agree. I should say you'll be able to run your own potentially-M MO.
That is, following in the MUD footprints.
There are still thousands of MUDs running, right now.
Most of them have 0 users most of the time, and if we could all throw up our own UO servers right now, which we could, so would they. 
| Quote: | | This is one reason why I think that Raph's metaplace idea is flawed, not to mention that the technology he's using (web browser) isn't going to deliver a quality 3D graphics experience. |
I tend to think quality game design is going to be the rare but vital ingredient.
| Quote: | | I think that developers should be REQUIRED to play the game that they develop for. Otherwise, how else are they going to understand what they are doing? |
They should be required to work on a game that they don't have to be required to play.
Mandatory play-time is very ineffective in terms of duplicating what it's like to play the game.
If it's not the sort of game they enjoy, they should work on one that is. If it is their type of game but they're no longer interested in doing anything one can do in the game, well that is the problem they should address.
S'much as possible, anyway.
| Quote: | | I am a network and systems engineer. It'd make little sense for me to make network design decisions if I never connected my PC to that network. Or ever used a PC at all except when I had to to do network design, would it? I'd be far more likely to make huge mistakes and to piss off the users if I, myself weren't also a user of the systems and networks, wouldn't I? |
Well, maybe one decision: why doesn't your network do anything for you? I mean... you never connect to it...
_________________
--Jeff Freeman
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
AfroPuff
Just off the shuttle
Joined: Dec 28, 2007
Posts: 43
|
| Posted: Sun Jan 20, 2008 12:53 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Dundee wrote: | | Owen-Lars wrote: | | Where do you think the level of community involvement is going these days? |
.... stuff.... |
I get the feeling this missed the thrust of his question. I could be wrong though.
I'd have to say though that I strongly agree on the elegance of the single shard serivce, which lets the content provider react with content tailored much more directly to the content consumer; or at least preserves that as a option, whereas the multi-shard precludes that completely.
I'll come right out and say that I'm still hooked on the idea of the worldy but dynamic MMOG sim. Yes, that's going to have a lot of spreadsheet in it I know, but that doesn't automatically mean it can't also be rock'em sock'em fun. Eventually we'll get there, but it's going to be an iterative process - the way your cell phone does way more today than your grandma's rotory did, or the way Rainbow Six completely outclasses Castle Wolfenstien.
I thought SWG was going to be that, but now I realize it was too ahead of it's time in that sense. My problem is that by the time we're 'there', I'll probably have to be doing something more age appropriate. Like Bingo Night. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Dundee
Just off the shuttle
Joined: Jan 13, 2008
Posts: 25
|
| Posted: Sun Jan 20, 2008 1:43 am Post subject: |
|
|
| AfroPuff wrote: | | Dundee wrote: | | Owen-Lars wrote: | | Where do you think the level of community involvement is going these days? |
.... stuff.... |
I get the feeling this missed the thrust of his question. I could be wrong though.
|
Hmmm... I'll try again...
| Quote: | | Other games you see a lot of more or less ignoring of the community all together. |
More of that for a while longer.
_________________
--Jeff Freeman
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
AfroPuff
Just off the shuttle
Joined: Dec 28, 2007
Posts: 43
|
| Posted: Sun Jan 20, 2008 3:40 am Post subject: |
|
|
| I'm gonna go ahead and agree there, too |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
wildcat
Admin Cabal
Joined: Dec 23, 2007
Posts: 166
Location: Huntington, WV
|
| Posted: Sun Jan 20, 2008 3:41 am Post subject: |
|
|
Even Hollywood is beginning to realize that you can't piss on your customers and continually insult them, even if you don't agree with their wants or views and stay solvent. They lost a couple hundred million dollars on anti-war films that no one went to see, for example.
Considering that there is less money in the whole MMO industry than one summer's worth of movies, you'd think they'd get a clue on this even sooner than Hollyweird did. The lesson learned: Even if you do hold your customers in contempt, you damn well better keep it to yourself.
Jeff, would you care to speculate as to WHY they won't at least offer classic servers on an "as is" basis? You'd think that this would be a "duh, no brainer" by now... |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Fishermage
Just off the shuttle
Joined: Dec 31, 2007
Posts: 17
|
| Posted: Sun Jan 20, 2008 3:32 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Thanks for your candor here Jeff. I, as you know, hold you no ill will, and only wish you the best for now and for the future. We all make mistakes, ethical and otherwise, and as long as we learn from them, we can consider ourselves as growing and moving forward.
Nice going. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Dundee
Just off the shuttle
Joined: Jan 13, 2008
Posts: 25
|
| Posted: Sun Jan 20, 2008 5:29 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| wildcat wrote: | | Jeff, would you care to speculate as to WHY they won't at least offer classic servers on an "as is" basis? You'd think that this would be a "duh, no brainer" by now... |
I think it'd take permission from LucasFilm to do it, and there's a better chance I'll win the lottery than of that happening (and I don't buy lotto tickets).
They've got to be thinking of exclusive MMO rights to SW in terms of the next MMO and buckets of cash and big chunk of the enormous revenue that a SW MMO is sure to acquire... so I don't know how anyone could even have that conversation with 'em.
Doesn't even matter that it's not quite the same thing as running two SW MMOs... it's not quite a different thing, either.
And there's no atmosphere for an argument between LucasFilm and LEC, nor between LEC and SOE. Any 'NO'-answers moving in that direction just have to be taken on the chin.
On a somewhat related note, but really as an aside to the above...
It's probable (in my mind) that running another version of SWG isn't something the contract between them even addresses. Whereas, "You have to get our permission to do anything" covers them being told not to do it, that'd be the sort of thing that requires coming to a new agreement on all manner of details.
I think that'd be a lot of fun to watch, 'cause I bet both parties would think they deserved a greater share of the loot for allowing/supporting "two MMOs for the price of one" and then challenging one another's comparing it to running two MMOs.
Complete tangent...
I've met one guy dead-set against "maintaining two code-bases" that he wouldn't even hear the case for configurable systems delivering variations in game play.
It looked like multiple code-bases (which was the point), and so no.
I'm not sure what the source of angst there was, exactly... but there must have been some horrible tragedy years ago that scarred some people emotionally.
'Cause...
1) No one's ever run multiple code-bases in modern times, let alone done so toward such a spectacular disaster as would justify that sort of reaction.
2) Everyone that has more than one game runs multiple code-bases.
I don't understand it.
_________________
--Jeff Freeman
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
prime8
Just off the shuttle
Joined: Dec 24, 2007
Posts: 24
|
| Posted: Sun Jan 20, 2008 5:44 pm Post subject: |
|
|
You would think the good will alone generated by offering origional game servers would be worth the cost to SOE , not taking into account i'm sure origional game servers would more than pay their way , it's not like SOE can pick and choose at this stage good press is good press .
cheers |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Dvol
Just off the shuttle
Joined: Dec 29, 2007
Posts: 37
Location: Go Vols!!!
|
| Posted: Sun Jan 20, 2008 6:49 pm Post subject: |
|
|
The revnue of old was sure a heck of alot more than the present. I mean alot of us had over 2 accounts @ 15 bucks a pop is alot of cash. I do think that if they would run a classic version it would actually do better now than then. Here is why i speculate that.. The simple fact for years most of us have "talked" about the old SWG so much. Those players who never experienced it, or came during the CU, would be inclined to see what all the "fuss" was about. I mean think about how national this issue has become. Major newspapers talking ect, hell every website an mmo games talking about it. Hell since the two screw up downgrades SWG recieved more press an exsposer than it did when it launched. Something too think about..
For me the next crop of MMO's would need to be better than SWG in everyway. They would need to offer more polish less bugs an improved gameplay. They wont however be sandbox none wowclones. We will see a mass of metoo crapola as we have with Lotro,NGE,AoC ect. All decent games but nothing better than WoW. I betcha the first break through will come from blizzard. Allready they have stated their next MMO ip wont be anything like WoW. These guys are some slick folks. Even tho i dont like WoW i can honestly say they must do something right. No one in the industry is willing to raise the bar..Except blizzard.. Hell why not have hte casual an hardcore market in two seperate games you own..Freaking genius IMO..
One must look too CCP and how they have grown not declined in sub base. Since its launch their sub base has steadily increased. First massive increase was april 05( same time the Cu hit) Then another major rise in Nov 05( NGE). They have slowly improved their do what you want sandbox space game. One thing i dont like is the skill training being timed base. Other than that its very polished an SWG like in player options. So there is a market for this type of game still. If there wasnt EvE wouldve closed long time ago. I personally think its ok an fun at times. Im just not much of a in ship out in space kinda sci fi player. I still pay to play it cause its the only game out ther now that isnt a bad copy of WoW fantasy Bs we have seen for the last 10+ years..
Im no expert bean counter but i can see $ signs in games like this. Player bases mature an crave more( like me)..The WoW crowd will also mature an look for the next best game..Too bad no one will make it till WoW starts too fail..WoW owes most of its success too apealing to korean fans as well as N America an Europe..Till those folks find a better WoW, we will continue down this road of copy WoW .not lets be better than WoW...Some smart investor somewere has too see this dont they? Im no expert but even i know gamers seek the next great time waster..If your allready playing one why play two? When the original is allways the better version. Same with every game type out there. Im a fan of FPS's but still crave a better doom *cough* Crysis*cough*call of duty 4* cough...
Two of my favorite Rpg's of all time was the Fallout series. I still have them on my PC an play them at least once a month. Crappy graphics but the open ended world,great sense of humor keeps me still intrested. Granted i must stop playing so i forget were stuff is. Says alot about the game tho. Too bad that great formula is lost in todays games. Its the downfall of games today. Lack of originality an player options..We need a new WoW please without the simple WoW formula...Sorry for ranting..
_________________
E-Feelings nothing more than hurt E-feelings.....E-tissues optional. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
wildcat
Admin Cabal
Joined: Dec 23, 2007
Posts: 166
Location: Huntington, WV
|
| Posted: Mon Jan 21, 2008 2:18 am Post subject: |
|
|
The best argument I can give LEC for doing classic servers is that they WILL bring them more money. Period.
Not to mention if LEC doesn't realize that they too have been heavily damaged by the NGE they are blind.
There will be carryover to the next Star Wars MMO because of the NGE.
At this point SWG is unsalvageable. The sequel almost already is dead before it's even made the damage to the name is so bad. A WOW clone hosed down with Star Wars juice (which is what the NGE tried to be) just isn't going to sell. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Obee
Just off the shuttle
Joined: Dec 24, 2007
Posts: 22
|
| Posted: Mon Jan 21, 2008 3:41 am Post subject: |
|
|
| wildcat wrote: | The best argument I can give LEC for doing classic servers is that they WILL bring them more money. Period.
Not to mention if LEC doesn't realize that they too have been heavily damaged by the NGE they are blind.
There will be carryover to the next Star Wars MMO because of the NGE.
At this point SWG is unsalvageable. The sequel almost already is dead before it's even made the damage to the name is so bad. A WOW clone hosed down with Star Wars juice (which is what the NGE tried to be) just isn't going to sell. |
I disagree. Classic servers would cost them more than they would make. Classic servers would kill the live game, since many of the current players would spend the majority of their game time on the classic servers (the OBoards are still filled with posts about the old game being much better than the current game, even by folks who like/accept the current game), which would result in the NGE servers being even emptier.
The main complaint about the game on the OBoards is about empty servers. Classic servers would make the problem much worse.
The classic game was also very much broken, mainly because development time was spent on making Jedi more accessible (easier to get and play) and revamping the core mechanics of the game, instead of fixing bugs and adding content. Any bump in subscriptions brought on by classic servers would quickly dissipate. They would eventually, within a few months, be in a situation where the current population is split between the classic servers and the live servers.
There is also the fact that a large number of people who liked the old game would be unwilling to play on a classic server as long as they have to do business with SOE (myself for example). What is wrong at SOE goes far beyond the mentality that brought about the NGE. Many of the folks at SOE are outright hostile towards their customers.
All that said, the main beneficiary of classic servers would be the next Star Wars MMO. The next SW MMO is going to be kneecapped out of the gate because of everything that went wrong with SWG. LEC has escaped most of the backlash due to the fact that they have, for the most part, stayed away from commenting too much on anything concerning SWG. A new Star Wars MMO will put LEC back in the spotlight as they will be promoting the game. The core of target audience of the game are the same folks who were burned by SWG. They are going to have to deal with a lot of the fallout they have avoided so far. I predict they will actively try to avoid any discussion about SWG while promoting the new game, which is just going to make people even more pissed off.
At any rate, the window for classic servers to have any positive impact on SOE or SWG closed around six months after the NGE. The bunker mentality and constant dismissal of the 'Vocal Minority', who very much turned out to be the vocal majority, during the aftermath of the NGE effectively killed any chance of the game ever recovering from the changes. More effort has been put into the live game since the NGE than the entire post-launch to NGE period. The only thing to show for that effort is a handful of 'The game is better than when the NGE launched' posts and another handful of 'The old game was better' posts. There have been brief bumps in the subscription numbers, but they quickly dissipated (and were likely the result of the free trials being counted as subscribers). |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
|
Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group
|
|
|
|
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
