doltec wrote:
Just out of curiosity the total combinations if the 4+1 not the 4+1/2 theory are correct should be what?
if it is like a lock combination it would be easy. I think the standard 3 pin 32 number lock has 1,853,020,188,851,841comibnations. If you can use the same number all three times..
so for the 4+1 theory 5^32 =23,283,064,365,386,962,890,625 combinations?is my math right there?
But since you cant have the same profession twice what is the formula?
1st= 32 choices
2nd=31 choices
3rd=30 choices
4th=29 choices
5th=28 choices
so if im correct by multiplying the total available professions the total combinations of professions available would be something like 24,944,640. So the chances of any two people having the same profession list would be miniscule. 25 million combinations? that sounds about right and managable. All you math wizards out there am i correct in this assumption.
I am rather tired and hope that my mathematics are in line here.
If you do the 4+1/2 theory that would mean you have a 6th = 27 choices so a much higher number of combinations but your probability of guessing one of the two would be higher, than the chance of just guessing one so you would have a 1 in 14 chance of guessing the silent holo? versus a 1 in 28 under plain 4+1. so that would leave you really only being concerned about the last two unknown profession so that would be only a total of 702 profession combinations and much more likely that any two players could have the same last two professions and thus have higher probabilities of unlocking on the same profession.
Goodness this makes sense to me right now but i have no clue if it makes sense to you boys and girls.
No closer to getting you to jedi but at least you know the combination of professions if my math is right in all the above cases.
Your math is flawed. I dont really get the large large number you threw out there.. not really sure what that is but its way off.
As for the chance of 2 people having the same 5 professions in a list under 4+1 you got half way there but missed a crucial step. 32*31*30*29*28 = 24,165,120 (slightly different than your calculations). However you must divide that number by 5 factorial (5*4*3*2*1 = 120) because the ORDER does not matter.
Meaning that if my combination was Artisan, Brawler, Marksman, Scout, Medic, and your combination was Medic, Artisan, Brawler, Marksman, Scout. Since ordering does not make a difference our formulas are the same. To eliminated all the "same" combinations you divide the initial total by the factorial of the number of choices (5) resulting in 201,376.
There is a 1 out of 201,376 chance that under 4+1 two people have an identical formula.
Additionally without using any holocrons under 4+1, any person has a 1 in 201,376 chance of unlocking after their first 5 professions.
Hope that clarifies things.
Stop badgering this guy. Choose to believe it or disbelieve it. If you can affirmatively disprove it, do so, but the only method I can think of is knowing someone who unlocked on their 32nd profession not including politician.
You know you CAN prove this theory to a degree of mathematical certainty. You would have to compile all the data of the people that unlocked to start and then take a look at how many people have not unlocked and how far in they are. You have to sort by what point did their holocrons go silent - how many overall professions.
For example lets say you have 20 Jedi whose Holocrons all went silent after completing their 9th profession. If you find that 2 of them unlocked on profession 10, 2 on 11, 2 on 12, 1 on 13, 3 on 14, 2 on 15... you will see a relatively straight line. Straight line is indicative of 4+1.
KEEP IN MIND IN A SAMPLE SIZE THIS SMALL IT IS HARD TO DRAW ANY CONCLUSIONS.
Now if those same 20 Jedi you found that 1 unlocked on #10, 2 on #11, 2 on #12, 4 on #13, 4 on #14, 2 on #15 etc you will notice more of a bell shape. That would be indicative of a 4+1/2 or even 4+1/3 maybe. Again too small sample size.
But the other thing you can factor in, is the people who have NOT unlocked.
If you now have 100 people whose holocrons went silent after their 9th overall profession (like our 20 Jedi), and of those lets say 50 of the are in the 20+ club that actually fits the straight line 4+1 theory a little better because of the total 120 people who went silent after 9 overall, to have 50 of those 120 (41.66%) of them go through 11 or more professions and not unlock under 4+1/2 would be a mathematical improbability. However, under 4+1 those numbers might be pretty close to what they should be.
Just remember the key is sorting by at what point did holocrons go silent. You can not mix someone whose holocrons went silent on overall profession # 6 and unlocked on #8 with people who were still getting holocron messages at #8. That will irreparably skew your numbers.
- Broog
- Broog
Remember, you will Want To Buy crystals, always.
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