That's the thing. There is no real information beyond the server being down. That's all they had to say. Hey, there's an issue with the merge, server will be down a few days. Will update when we have more information.
What would we speculate? A wipe? They've already done that for us, and look at the nonsense that gets posted in response.
I mean, they've upset people who think they're going to lose everything. And if it doesn't wipe, they'll have upset people who have wanted a wipe for years. There was literally nothing to gain by announcing a possibility of a wipe if it isn't going to actually happen.
I've gotten the impression that they keep all their backups on the same drives. I mean, if they had another drive with an older backup, they wouldn't be announcing the possibility of a wipe. They'd know they have an older DB to work with.